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Are Home Values Really Overinflated?

Last week, the National Association of Realtors (NAR) released their most recent Existing Home Sales Report. According to the report:

“The median existing-home price for all housing types in January was $240,500, up 5.8 percent from January 2017 ($227,300). January’s price increase marks the 71st straight month of year-over-year gains.”

Seventy-one consecutive months of price increases may have some concerned that current home values may be overinflated.

However, at the same time, Zillow issued a press release which revealed:

“If the housing bubble and bust had not happened, and home values had instead appreciated at a steady pace, the median home value would be higher than its current value.”

Here are two graphs that help show why home prices are exactly where they should be.

The first graph shows actual median home sales prices from 2000 through 2017.

Are Home Values Really Overinflated? | MyKCM

By itself, this graph could heighten concerns as it shows home values rose in the early 2000s, came tumbling down and are now headed up again. It gives the feel of a rollercoaster ride that is about to take another turn downward.

However, if we also include where prices would naturally be, had there not been a boom & bust, we see a different story.

Are Home Values Really Overinflated? | MyKCM

The blue bars on this graph represent were prices would be if they had increased by the normal annual appreciation rate (3.6%). By adding 3.6% to the actual 2000 price and repeating that for each subsequent year, we can see that prices were overvalued during the boom, undervalued during the bust, and a little bit LOWER than where they should be right now.

Bottom Line

Based on historic appreciation levels, we should be very comfortable that current home values are not overinflated.

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About Area

Blairsville, Georgia is a small mountain town located in the beautiful Blue Ridge Mountains. Widely known for being one of the most desirable destinations for outdoor adventurers, people come to Blairsville for mountain biking, hiking, fishing or just to marvel at the perfect beauty of nature. A large portion of the area is in the Chattahoochee National Forest, and therefore, will remain untouched and naturally serene and beautiful. In 1942 Lake Nottely was created by the Tennessee Valley Authority for power production. The resulting 4,180 acre lake today is a source of Summer fun, with boating, fishing and swimming abundant, and the river that feeds the lake offers some of the best trout fishing in the state. Vogel State Park, located just outside of town, is centered around Trahlyta Lake and Trahlyta Falls. With rustic cabins on site, and primitive camp sites, you can stay for days or weeks and enjoy swimming, paddle boating and fishing in the lake, hike to the falls, or even play putt-putt. Just beyond Vogel State Park are several more waterfalls with hiking trails and areas to camp, fish, or play in the creek. In addition to all of the majestic waterways running through the valleys, the highest elevation in the state of Georgia is in Blairsville, on top of Brasstown Bald Mountain. Here, you can hike up to the visitor’s center (or take a shuttle) where you have a 360⁰ view, and can see four different states on a clear day, have a picnic, visit the gift shop, and if you’re feeling adventurous, take one of the longer hiking trails, one of which leads to the Appalachian Trail. You won’t be surrounded by department stores or chain restaurants in Blairsville, but you can find handcrafted, original creations in the small shops, or if you visit the Farmer’s Market or one of the many festivals throughout the year. This is certainly a beautiful and unique town worth seeing, perhaps you’ll even want to stay, and if that’s the case, contact your Century 21 Scenic Realty. We are always here for you!

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