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A New Housing Bubble Forming…Not Before 2024!

A recent report by CoreLogic revealed that U.S. home values appreciated by more than 37% over the last five years. Some are concerned that this is evidence we may be on the verge of another housing “boom & bust” like the one we experienced from 2006-2008.

Recently, several housing experts weighed in on the subject to alleviate these fears.

Sean Becketti, Freddie Mac Chief Economist

 “The evidence indicates there currently is no house price bubble in the U.S., despite the rapid increase of house prices over the last five years.”

Edward Golding, a Senior Fellow at the Urban Institute’s Housing Finance Policy Center

 “There is not likely to be a national bubble in the way that we saw the first decade of the century.”

Christopher Thornberg, Partner at Beacon Economics

 “There is no direct or indirect sign of any kind of bubble.”

Bill McBride, Calculated Risk

 “I wouldn’t call house prices a bubble.”

David M. Blitzer, Chairman of the Index Committee at S&P Dow Jones Indices

 “Housing is not repeating the bubble period of 2000-2006.”

A recent article by Teo Nicolais, a real estate entrepreneur who teaches courses on real estate principles, markets, and finance at Harvard Extension School concluded that the next housing bubble may not occur until 2024.

The article, How to Use Real Estate Trends to Predict the Next Housing Bubble, looks at previous peaks in real estate values going all the way back to 1818. Nicolais uses the research of several economists. The article details the four phases of a real estate cycle and what defines each phase.

Nicolais concluded his article by saying:

“Those who study the financial crisis of 2008 will (we hope) always be weary of the next major crash. If George, Harrison, and Foldvary are right, however, that won’t happen until after the next peak around 2024. 

Between now and then, aside from the occasional slow down and inevitable market hiccups, the real estate industry is likely to enjoy a long period of expansion.”

Bottom Line

The reason for the price appreciation we are seeing is an imbalance between supply and demand for housing. This has created a natural increase in values, not a bubble in prices.

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About Area

Blairsville, Georgia is a small mountain town located in the beautiful Blue Ridge Mountains. Widely known for being one of the most desirable destinations for outdoor adventurers, people come to Blairsville for mountain biking, hiking, fishing or just to marvel at the perfect beauty of nature. A large portion of the area is in the Chattahoochee National Forest, and therefore, will remain untouched and naturally serene and beautiful. In 1942 Lake Nottely was created by the Tennessee Valley Authority for power production. The resulting 4,180 acre lake today is a source of Summer fun, with boating, fishing and swimming abundant, and the river that feeds the lake offers some of the best trout fishing in the state. Vogel State Park, located just outside of town, is centered around Trahlyta Lake and Trahlyta Falls. With rustic cabins on site, and primitive camp sites, you can stay for days or weeks and enjoy swimming, paddle boating and fishing in the lake, hike to the falls, or even play putt-putt. Just beyond Vogel State Park are several more waterfalls with hiking trails and areas to camp, fish, or play in the creek. In addition to all of the majestic waterways running through the valleys, the highest elevation in the state of Georgia is in Blairsville, on top of Brasstown Bald Mountain. Here, you can hike up to the visitor’s center (or take a shuttle) where you have a 360⁰ view, and can see four different states on a clear day, have a picnic, visit the gift shop, and if you’re feeling adventurous, take one of the longer hiking trails, one of which leads to the Appalachian Trail. You won’t be surrounded by department stores or chain restaurants in Blairsville, but you can find handcrafted, original creations in the small shops, or if you visit the Farmer’s Market or one of the many festivals throughout the year. This is certainly a beautiful and unique town worth seeing, perhaps you’ll even want to stay, and if that’s the case, contact your Century 21 Scenic Realty. We are always here for you!

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